Weekly Update 30 Dec 22 - 7Jan 23
Overview & General Assessment
Currently, the situation in Libya is superficially calm, but not stable. The rift between Tripolitania and the other two - neglected - regions is increasingly deepening. Especially in the East the situation is getting more tense month by month. In the greater Tripoli - Zawiya - Sabratha - Al Ajaylat area there is more severe fighting between rival militias, all of them “pro-Dbeibha”, about every week. It is highly unlikely that the situation in the greater capital area will get more stable any time soon.
“Cairo Declaration”
HoR Chair Agheela Saleh and HCS Chair Khaled Al Mishri jointly announced in Cairo, following an Egyptian-brokered meeting, that talks will continue toward an agreement on the constitutional basis for the elections. The outcome is expected to require the approval of both HoR and HCS. If that approval is not forthcoming, the outstanding issues will be subject to a referendum. They intend to jointly agree on a new roadmap towards elections at a later stage. Both specifically thanked UNSMIL for the support shown.
Saleh and Al Mishri will continue their talks in Tobruk in the coming days.
UNSMIL, following the Saleh - Al Mishri meeting in Cairo, has called on HoR and HCS to now quickly reach an agreement on the groundwork for the elections. US Special Envoy Richard Norland has stated that there is now no reason to delay the elections.
On the other side, members of the Constitutional Drafting Assembly, Mohamed Sahwan (Chair of the MB offshoot Democratic Party), a spokesman (?) for Operation Volcano of Rage, and several HoR & HCS deputies rejected the declaration for various reasons.
Assessment:
The “Cairo Declaration” contains no real news except for the referendum. Such a referendum could bring real progress, but would need to be further specified in terms of the subject of the vote and if it needs a majority in all three regions of the country or just in the whole of Libya.
The prospects for an agreement about a constitutional basis for the elections are dire. The main outstanding issues are whether dual citizens, military officers, active politicians and Saif Al Islam are eligible to run for president. However, it is important to realize that neither HoR Chair Agheela Saleh, nor HCS Chair Khaled Al Mishri have the assertiveness to decide these issues. In fact, it is highly unlikely that the HoR or the HCS as such will be able to make a decision against the will of LNA Commander Khalifa Haftar (who is widely supported in the East), GNU PM Abdul Hamid Dbeibha, or the powerful militias of Misrata and Tripoli. It is also highly unlikely that any of these individuals or groups will change their views in the foreseeable future.
General
According to the UNHCR, there are still around 143,000 IDPs (Internally Displaced Persons) in Libya. A significant portion of this comes from the East.
Turkish MFA Mevlut Cavusoglu said there is no actor that can take over Turkey's role in Libya. His country would remain fully engaged in Libya in 2023.
In 2022, according to the CBL, Libyan government spending totaled LYD 127.9 billion, an increase of LYD 42 billion compared to 2021. The revenue amounted to LYD 134.4 billion.
Oil/gas revenues increased from LYD 103.4 billion (2021) to LYD 105.5 billion (2022).
The draft budget for 2023 submitted by GNS PM Fathi Bashagha to the HoR includes LYD 57.5 billion in expenditures. The draft for 2022 - unanimously approved by the HoR but not covered by the CBL - has included 89, 7 billion LYD.
Assessment:
Last year's budget of the GNS was not financed by the CBL, although it had been approved by the HoR. it is unlikely that this will change this year.
Influential HoR MP Ali Al Takbali has said Saif Al Islam has the right to run for president. In his opinion, no one should be excluded from the election.
Saif Al Islam has demanded that anyone who wants to, can run in the presidential elections. He also sees no legal obstacles to this.
Assessment:
If Saif would be finally allowed to run and would make it into the run-off, this would probably lead to a violent escalation.
On January 1st, 2023, the PC sent invitations to the HoR and HCS for a meeting of the Chairs in Ghadames on 11Jan23. HCS and HoR rejected the invitation and claimed there is no need for a mediator between them.
Assessment:
The rejection of the PC mediation by HCS and HoR - even more so without setting a specific date of their own - shows once again how little respect the PC enjoys.
PM Abdul Hamid Dbeibah said his government is ready to hold the postponed elections this year and promised that 2023 would be marked by "elections and unity of institutions." Dbeibha accused HoR Chair Agheela Saleh in particular, but also HCS Chair Khaled Al Mishri, of preventing agreement on the constitutional issue. The two are working on a "dubious deal" on power sharing.
Security, Crime & Corruption
Over several days, heavy fighting between rival local militias took place in Al Ajaylat. The situation there remains very tense.
In Zawiya, once again a man was shot and seriously wounded in an assassination attempt.
The Noble & Elder of Zaltan (west of Zuwarah) have demanded the immediate withdrawal of all armed forces (= militias) of the MoI and MoD from the city area after the attempted assassination of the mayor.
Assessment:
In the Zaltan area, several militias from Zuwarah, Sabratha and Zawiya, some of which rival each other, are active in the smuggling business. All (?) of these militias officially belong to (and are paid by) either the MoI or the MoD, but the ministries have virtually no influence over the militias.
Attorney General Al Sadiq Al Sour has ordered the arrest of former Minister of Economy and Industry Moneer Asr of the former Interim Government (of Abdullah Al Thinni), of the former Financial Controller of the Health Attache of the Embassy in Rome, the director of Jamahiriya Bank in Bir Al Ashhab (70 km east of Tobruk) and two other officials of this bank for corruption, fraud and embezzlement.
In Tripoli, an office of the Anti-corruption Authority (ACA) was stormed. The attackers stole files on corruption cases.
Reportedly, in Tripoli the militias of Abdelghanem Al Kikli aka Ghnaiwa (SSA), Abdul Salam Zubi (301st Brigade), Bashir al Bugra (Rahbat Al Daraa), and Mahmoud Bin Rajab (Al Farouk Brigade) have formed an informal alliance against Rada Force and Force 444.
Economy
Minister of Finance & Planning of the Bashahga GNS, Osama Hammad, has stated they will take "escalating measures" to stop the flow of oil revenues to the GNU. At the same time, he called for a criminal investigation against GNU PM Dbeibha for several reasons.
In Fezzan, the Al Hirak Movement plans to declare an oil blockade and also threatens to close the Man-made River if PM Dbeibha does not immediately start negotiations with them to achieve a more equal distribution of oil revenues and improve Fezzan's situation.
Assessment:
While the GNS has no means to order or enforce a blockade, the increasing frustration of the population in the east and south makes such blockades increasingly more likely.
The NOC has called on the GNU to file a formal protest against Greek exploratory drilling south of Crete (hard north of the centerline between Libya and Crete). They would also send a letter to ExxonMobil asking them to stop this drilling.
According to the Minister of Economy and Trade Muhammad Al Hawaij, the south of the country needs around USD 10 billion for its development. Among other things, the infrastructure must be expanded, the development of agriculture promoted and an industry based on the resources of the South established.
Disclaimer:
The statements of Wolfgang Pusztai are his own and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the NCUSLR.
