Weekly Update 8Jan 23 - 14Jan 23
Overview & General Assessment
Currently the situation in Libya is superficially calm, but not stable. The rift between Tripolitania and the other two - neglected - regions is increasingly deepening. Especially in the East the state of affairs is getting more tense month by month. In the Tripoli - Zawiya - Sabratha - Al Ajaylat area the security situation was relatively calm this week. However, it is highly unlikely that the circumstances in the greater capital area will stabilize permanently in the near future.
[Note: The abbreviations used as well as brief characteristics of the key players and institutions can be found in the "Libya Conflict Overview".]
Will the PC declare a State of Emergency?
PC Chair Mohamed Al Menfi and LNA Commander Khalifa Haftar met in Cairo to discuss the current situation in Libya and ways to unify the armed forces. During the meeting, Haftar stated that the LNA supports the peace process and will protect democracy in the country.
Al Menfi stressed also the possibility of the PC declaring a State of Emergency with the subsequent dissolution of the HoR, HCS, GNU, and GNS, if HoR and HCS do not agree on a constitutional basis for the elections very soon. Thereafter, an interim mini-government would be formed to host elections within 6-12 months. In that case, the PC would enact the appropriate constitutional provisions and laws.
This is the second meeting between the two after the February 2021 meeting in Benghazi.
Assessment:
Such a declaration of a State of Emergency can only work if Al Menfi has the support of the main militias of Tripoli and Misrata, as well as that of the LNA, and at least the tacit agreement of Turkey. It is likely that Dbeibha will try to retain the militias through additional funding and high-level posts.
After returning to Tripoli, Al Menfi received Turkish Ambassador Kenan Yilmaz. The main topic was Al Menfi's meeting with Khalifa Haftar. Yilmaz expressed Turkey's support for the PC and its efforts to stabilize through the Conference for National Reconciliation and the electoral process.
Assessment:
Turkey is fully aware of the deep divisions in the country and the high potential for escalation.
General
After meeting with Turkish MFA Mevlüt Cavusoglu in Ankara, the Italian MFA Antonio Tajani stated Italy and Turkey have a "common vision" for Libya.
PC Chair Mohamed Al Menfi met with British Ambassador Caroline Hurndall and German Ambassador Michael Ohnmacht to discuss the situation in Libya and their respective bilateral cooperation. Hurndall praised the importance of the Conference for National Reconciliation. Ohnmacht raised the possibility of another Berlin conference.
Assessment:
Both countries have little influence on the stabilization process in Libya.
CIA Director William Burns visited PM Abdul Hamid Dbeibha and spoke with him about the Islamist & terrorist scene in Libya as well as about Libya’s Russia relations. The meeting was also attended by Chargé d'affaires of the US Embassy Leslie Ordman, MFA Najla Al Mangoush, Director Libyan General Intelligence Service LTG Hussein Muhammad Al Aib and Minister of State for Cabinet Affairs Adel Jumaa.
On the way to Tripoli, Burns met before with LNA Commander Khalifa Haftar in Benghazi for a brief discussion on the same topics.
Burns warned each of his interlocutors against close ties with Moscow.
Assessment:
Containment of Russian influence is currently one of the main issues in U.S. foreign and security policy. This visit does not signify a change of the (rather low) priority of Libya for U.S. foreign policy.
This week a preparatory meeting for the Conference for National Reconciliation took place at the Hotel Corinthia in Tripoli. PC Chair Mohamed Al Menfi opened the meeting and stated that the PC is counting on the influence of the public to finally persuade the HoR, HCS and other political institutions to end the political stalemate. He added that the PC is not part of the political dispute and keeps the same distance from all parties.
PC Deputy Abdullah Al Lafi stressed that the reconciliation project is a national project "par excellence" and belongs to all of Libya. Everyone must take responsibility to reach solutions. Otherwise, Libya will be divided into pieces.
The invited representatives of Saif Al Islam had withdrawn from the conference in protest against the playing of the (new) national anthem and the (new) Libyan flag on the first day, but returned the next day.
At the end of the conference, UNSR Abdoulaye Bathily warned again against the partition of Libya. He said it is time to heal the wounds and come to a lasting peace.
In front of the conference venue a small group demonstrated against the participation of representatives of the former Gaddafi regime.
PC Chair Mohamed Al Menfi, in the course of a meeting with HCS Chair Khaled Al Mishri, again invited the latter and the Chair of the HoR to a meeting in Ghadames.
Assessment:
Al Menfi, with the support of UNSMIL and some countries, is now trying to be more proactive. It remains questionable whether he can build up enough pressure for real progress or whether he has the strength to declare and enforce a state of emergency.
HCS MP Ali Al Seeh stated that if the HCS had a choice between a referendum on constitutional bases for elections and one on the draft constitution, they would be in favor of the latter. But this matter would have to be decided with its political partners. Unfortunately, the HoR only accepts to have a referendum on the constitutional bases for elections.
The HCS published its version of the constitution, which is very close to the 2017 draft. It establishes Sharia law as the supreme law, designates Tripoli as the sole capital, declares Libya as a single entity with no provinces or other constitutionally defined divisions, and makes no mention of specific minority rights.
Assessment:
This draft will meet strong rejection in the east and south as well as among the Amazigh, Touareg and Toubou.
The HCS has discussed the situation of internally displaced persons from the east and called for their early return home.
Crown Prince Mohammed Al Rida Al Senussi stated in an interview that the royal constitution is closest to what Libya needs to stabilize itself and maintain unity.
Deputy PM and Minister of Health Ramadan Abu Jinnah has promised that LYD 16 billion will be earmarked for the development of the South, but without announcing a timeframe for it.
The Tripoli Court of Appeal suspended last October's MoU with Turkey on oil/gas exploration for violating several national laws, but left open an appeal option. PM Dbeibha informed Turkish MFA Mevlüt Cavusoglu that of course his government still backs the MoU. He added that the Tripoli Court of Appeal's decision should be considered only "preliminary."
PM Abdul Hamid Dbeibha has discussed with CBL Governor Sadiq Al Kabir the GNU's planned spending for 2023. Thereafter, he briefed PC Chair Mohamed Al Menfi, PC Deputy Abdullah Al Lafi and Director Audit Bureau Khaled Shakshak on the GNU's financial plans for 2023.
PM Fathi Bashagha’s GNS held a ministerial council meeting in Sebha on Wednesday.
In 2022, the GNS had a total of only LYD 1.05 billion available, as it has no access to the oil revenues. The bulk of this was spent through emergency committees for the three regions.
Bashagha, together with his MFA Abul Hafez Gaddur and the Head of the Crisis Committee for the Southern Region Salem Al Zadma, visited a number of Crisis Committee projects in the Sebha area. These projects were mainly renovation activities on public buildings.
Mohamed Sawan, head of the MB offshoot Democratic Party, said that if elections are to be held, the door must be kept open to all, including dual citizens and candidates from the military. He asked, "How can you exclude the military if they have supporters and can interfere with the elections? He said that if you want to have practical solutions, you cannot exclude any of these groups. Sawan urged UNSR Abdoulaye Bathily to leave HoR & HCS aside if they do not reach an agreement soon, and to establish a new forum for dialogue.
Assessment:
Sawan is seeking to regain increased political visibility and, to this end, has shown himself to be a politician willing to compromise, increasingly turning away from the radical spectrum of Islamists.
Security, Crime & Corruption
The 5+5 Joint Military Commission (JMC) is to hold a meeting in Sirte on 15/16Jan23, with UNSR Abdoulaye Bathily in attendance. The main topic is to be a plan for the withdrawal of foreign troops and mercenaries.
Saiqa Special Forces still based in Sirte were redeployed back to Benghazi.
MoI Emad Trabelsi presented his security plan for Tripoli. Police stations and Security Directorates departments that have direct contact with citizens are to be massively strengthened through staff reassignments. The plan is to proceed in phases from the city center to the periphery.
An Administrative Control Authority official was found murdered in his car in Tripoli near People's Hall late on Monday afternoon. The killer was arrested the day after.
HoR MP Sarah Al Suwaih's house in Janzour was shelled with RPGs on Friday and Saturday last week while residents were inside. Significant property damage was caused in each case.
The body of a man from Khoms was found in Janzour, apparently murdered by multiple stab wounds.
Another assassination attempt was carried out in Zawiya. The target of the attack was a colonel in the security forces.
Friday night purportedly some fierce fighting took place between opposing Wrishfana militias in the Al Zahra Bridge area (west of Tripoli International Airport).
The Attorney General uncovered LYD 25 million in customs fraud at the port of Misrata. Several port officials were arrested. Among others, a high-ranking NOC General Department of International Marketing official, the Brega Oil Marketing Company director of the Supply and Maritime Transport Department and the mayor of Harawa (65 km east of Sirte) were arrested for fraud and/or corruption.
Economy
Libya is Turkey's third most important African export destination after Egypt ($3.9 billion) and Morocco ($3 billion), ahead of Algeria ($1.9 million), with a volume of $2.4 billion.
Minister of Oil Mohamed Aoun expects oil and gas reserves off the east coast to be at least equal to those off the west coast. According to Aoun, Libya plans to increase oil production to 1.5 million bpd in 2023 and to 3 million bpd within three years.
ExxonMobil assured it is not concerned about either Turkish or Libyan objections to seismic surveys and exploratory drilling south of Crete. It said it would accelerate the work (which is being done in partnership with HELLENiQ Energy) to get results as soon as possible. Originally, the first drillings were scheduled for 2025/26. These are now scheduled to take place as early as 2024/25.
GECOL has stated that the power crisis is almost over. In recent months, additional power plants and several mobile generators have been connected to the grid. The transmission network has also been upgraded and cable thefts have decreased.
Disclaimer:
The statements of Wolfgang Pusztai are his own and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the NCUSLR.
