Weekly Update 15Jan - 21Jan 23
Overview & General Assessment
Currently the situation in Libya is superficially widely calm, but not stable. An agreement between HoR and HCS about the constitutional foundation for elections seems to be unlikely in the near future. The rift between Tripolitania and the other two - neglected - regions is increasingly deepening. Especially in the East the state of affairs is getting more tense month by month. Renewed fighting in the greater capital area underlined that there will be no lasting stabilization around Tripoli in the near future.
[Note: The abbreviations used as well as brief characteristics of the key players and institutions can be found in the "Libya Conflict Overview".]
How significant is the visit of Turkey’s intelligence chief Hakan Fidan?
After a previous visit to Sudan, Turkish intelligence chief Hakan Fidan arrived on Tuesday in Tripoli, where he met PM Abdul Hamid Dbeibha (in the presence of his second cousin Ibrahim), HCS Chair Khaled Al Mishri and others. One of the main topics discussed with Dbeibha was the Libyan-Turkish MoU on oil/gas exploration. Al Mishri gave Fidan an update on the talks on the constitution and the elections. Fidan was also briefly received by PC Chair Mohamed Al Menfi.
In the evening, Dbeibha hosted a dinner for Fidan in Hay Andalus, which was attended by Ibrahim Dbeibha, Al Mishri, PC Deputy Abdullah Al Lafi, Minister of State for Political Affairs Walid Al Lafi, and CBL Governor Sadiq Al Kabir, as well as by the commander of the Turkish forces in Libya.
Assessment:
Hakan Fidan’s visit to Tripoli demonstrates the strong support of Turkey to the Dbeibha government. President Erdogan is worried about the situation in Libya and intends to prevent any major escalation at least until after the Turkish Presidential elections in June.
The meeting in the evening with the two Turks was for the inner circle around the Dbeibhas (and also for Al Mishri). The HCS chair was probably made clear that he had to reject the current HoR proposals regarding elections.
General
The President of the Republic of Congo and Chair of the African Union High-Level Committee on Libya Denis Sassou Nguesso has expressed hope that the main event of the Conference for National Reconciliation can take place before this summer and that it will pave the way towards elections. According to him, the entire region would benefit from this.
The Misrata Municipal Council, the Council of Elder & Notable of Greater Tripoli and others rejected the (preliminary) results of the Conference. Those do not comply with Islamic law, the Constitutional Declaration, transitional justice or Libyan customs and traditions. Anyone who committed crimes against the Libyan people should be held accountable. The event was merely a "suspicious political deal" and not a serious initiative for reconciliation. The values of the 17th February Revolution will not be allowed to be undermined. The PC will be held fully responsible for exacerbating the conflict if it continues with the previous approach to the conference.
PM Dbeibha, referring to the controversy over the national flag at the Conference, said the revolutionary flag is not negotiable. He also reiterated that a military dictatorship is out of the question for Libya.
Assessment:
There were no substantive determinations at all at the conference. The presence of Saif Al Islam representatives alone is reason enough for many in Misrata and Tripoli to reject the entire initiative. This shows how deeply divided the country is.
PC Chair Mohamed Al Menfi, HoR Chair Agheela Saleh and LNA Commander Khalifa Haftar met in Cairo under Egyptian mediation. The talks focused on securing the ceasefire and on possible ways out of the current political impasse. They again discussed Al Menfi's plan to declare a State of Emergency if an agreement between HoR and HCS is not possible. It was agreed to conduct the future intra-Libyan dialogue "without foreign interference".
HoR Chair Agheela Saleh emphasized that the amended Constitutional Declaration 2011 should form the basis for the elections. This would allow a way out of the current deadlock. He stressed that it is completely impossible for the Dbeibha government to remain in power, as it is illegitimate.
Saleh added that the Draft Constitution 2017 needs to be further discussed and must be submitted to a referendum, which will take much more time.
He called on the HCS to agree to a deal by the end of March, including a new transitional government. He said that only the candidacy of dual citizens and military persons for the presidency is still at stake. Saleh expects that further talks in Cairo will soon lead to a change of mind at the HCS, which would then pave the way for a constitutional foundation for the elections.
Assessment:
This is diametrically opposed to the current HCS position. After Al Mishir attended the "summit" of Dbeibha's inner circle with Turkish intelligence chief Hakan Fidan, an agreement to this by him seems very unlikely.
Leslie Ordman, Chargé d'Affairs of the U.S. Embassy, visited Agheela Saleh and Khalifa Haftar in Benghazi and Al Rajma, respectively. Ordman was accompanied by LTG John D. Lamontagne, Deputy Commander, United States Air Forces in Europe & Air Forces Africa. The main topic with Haftar was security cooperation, but the constitutional basis for elections was also addressed. With Saleh, the topic was the status of talks with the HCS. The HoR chair emphasized that the Constitutional Declaration 2011 should form the basis for elections. Saleh underlined that the HoR is Libya's only legislature. No one else could pass laws.
PM Abdul Hamid Dbeibha, speaking in Misrata at an Association of Families of Martyrs and Missing event in his honor, said his government is committed to Libya's unity. He is against any kind of division or splintering of the country and also against a military dictatorship.
Assessment:
These statements accurately reflect the views of the audience and most of Misrata.
A group of 48 presidential candidates has handed over a paper with an initiative for elections to UNSR Abdoulaye Bathily. They call for their initiative to be used as the basis for a roadmap to finally end the transitional phase. The Supreme Judicial Council should temporarily take over the duties of the legislature. To this end, the Supreme Judicial Council should suspend HoR and HCS and dissolve the two rival governments. It is then to appoint a mini-government within ten days, which would have to hold elections within nine months.
Italian MFA Antonio Tajani has stressed that it is very important to have a stable interlocutor in Libya to work with and solve the problem of migration,
Assessment:
Italy thus de facto supports the Dbeibha government, which is not surprising. In order to pursue its interests in Libya, Italy must always cooperate with the government that is in charge in Tripoli. This was even true for the Islamic National Salvation Government in 2014-15, which was led by an ex-LIFG fighter.
An informal meeting of Arab League (AL) MFAs will be held in Tripoli on Sunday.
The MoI is working diligently on security arrangements. A number of roads have been closed. Several countries have called for the meeting to be postponed due to the security situation (see below). Egypt has ruled out participation from the outset.
Assessment:
It is very unlikely that the participating delegations will be directly endangered by the sporadic fighting in Tripoli, but for the various terrorist groups, the meeting in Tripoli with its chaotic security situation could provide a good opportunity for assassinations.
However, holding the AL summit with a significant participation of ministers would be a major political success for Dbeibha.
Security, Crime & Corruption
On Sunday/Monday in Sirte the first 5+5 Joint Military Commission (JMC) meeting in seven months took place under the chairmanship of UNSR Abdoulaye Bathily. The main topic was a plan for the withdrawal of all foreign troops and mercenaries. An exchange of the remaining POWs, the deployment of the civilian UN ceasefire observers and the establishment of a joint ceasefire commission were also discussed, but no definite decisions were reached. The head of the latter also attended the meeting.
Bathily intends to meet in the coming weeks with Libya's southern neighbors, Sudan, Chad, and Niger, to discuss the withdrawal of mercenary and rebel groups from Libya back to those countries.
Assessment:
Bathily recognized that withdrawal of these armed forces can only occur in close coordination with the affected countries to prevent the (renewed) export of violence from Libya.
Bathily visited the city of Sirte after the 5+5 JMC meeting ended. During the visit, he expressed his reg about the severe war damage and urged Libyan political actors not to forget the "children of Sirte."
In Sabratha, a police patrol was fired upon by unknown persons. One policeman was killed.
In Zawiya - Al Harsha, a man was murdered in an assassination attempt.
In the second half of the night from Wednesday to Thursday some heavy fighting took place in the Qasr Bin Gashir - Tripoli International Airport (TIP) area between Abdul Salam Zoubi's 111th Brigade and the Rada Force, which was supported by the Judicial Police. In the early morning hours Rada-allied Force 444 deployed troops to the combat area "to restore calm."
Allegedly, at least three people were killed and about a dozen wounded. TIP remains in the hands of the 111th Brigade. The GNU has not commented on the fighting, although both forces are considered “pro-Dbeibha”.
Assessment:
TIP airport is in a very important location at the southern entrance to Tripoli. From there, it is possible to dominate two out of three main approaches to the city. In addition, Rada Force fears the loss of the very lucrative smuggling business (which currently runs through Rada-controlled Mitiga Airport) if TIP reopens and is not under Rada control.
Consequently, the objective of Rada Force is to drive Zoubi out of the TIP - Qasr Bin Gashir area and take control of TIP. The conflict is of particular relevance because Zoubi has close ties to Misrata. TIP also serves as a staging area for Misrata on the way to Tripoli.
Security forces have arrested a man who sabotaged a pumping station of the MMR near Souk Al Khamis - Fam Molga. The resulting leak has since been closed again.
An assassination attempt on 3rd (Wrishfana) Battalion commander Ramzi Al Lafa at his home in An Najila (5 km NW of Al Swani) failed on Friday afternoon. His rival Muhammar Al Dhawi is suspected to be behind it. Reportedly, at least one of Al Lafa's companions was seriously wounded. Subsequently the 3rd Battalion mobilized all its forces and searched for the assassins in the An Najila area.
Early in the evening, the 3rd Battalion attacked a 55th Battalion checkpoint in the area south of Al Swani west of Al Zahra Bridge At least one person was killed, two were wounded.
Assessment:
While Ramzi Al Lafa has always been an ally of PM Abdul Hamid Dbeibha, Muhammar Al Dhawi switched sides only in October. In any case, however, the background to the fighting is not political disputes, but the struggle for control of smuggling through the Wrishfana tribal area, including fuel smuggling. Sporadic clashes are to be expected in Wrishfana in the coming days.
On behalf of the Attorney General, following inspections by the Food and Drug Control Authority, more than 50 factories nationwide for the bottling of drinking water have been closed.
The Attorney General ordered the arrest of a former director of the Sahara Bank branch in Fezzan for fraud (LYD 30.5 million).
In the port of Zuwarah, a smuggler's ship carrying a million liters of fuel was prevented from leaving.
Economy
Minister of Oil Mohamed Aoun said Libya has enough potential for solar energy to be able to export large amounts of electricity. There are great ambitions in this regard, he said.
The Libyan General Bar Association welcomed the Tripoli Court of Appeal's annulment of the MoU with Turkey. This is in accordance with the rule of law.
Ahmed Hamza, head of the Libyan National Human Rights Committee, called on the GNU and Turkey to respect the decision of the Libyan courts, referring to the MoU.
Italy is Libya's most important trading partner. In the first ten months of 2022, the trade volume amounted to EUR 10.17 bn (+75.71% compared to the same period in 2021). Exports to Libya amounted to EUR 1.76 bn (+80.48%), while imports from Libya amounted to EUR 8.41 bn (+74.74%).
Algeria's Sonelgaz is ready to supply Libya with larger quantities of electricity, but first needs adequate financing to establish a direct interconnector.
Disclaimer:
The statements of Wolfgang Pusztai are his own and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the NCUSLR.
