Weekly Update 22Jan - 28Jan 23
Overview & General Assessment
Currently the situation in Libya is superficially widely calm, but not stable.
An agreement between HoR and HCS about the constitutional foundation for elections remains unlikely in the near future. The rift between Tripolitania and the other two - neglected - regions is increasingly deepening. The population in the south is more and more frustrated about fuel shortages in an oil rich area. This could lead - together with other grievances - to renewed oil Blockades.
While PM Dbeibha is currently firmly in power, the security situation in the greater Tripoli area remains unstable.
[Note: The abbreviations used as well as brief characteristics of the key players and institutions can be found in the "Libya Conflict Overview".]
Largest investment in Libya's hydrocarbon industry since 25 years
During the visit of the Italian PM Giorgia Meloni to Tripoli, ENI CEO Claudio Descalzi and NOC Chair Farhat Omar Bin Ghdarah signed in the presence of the two PMs an $8 billion agreement on joint gas production. The deal has a term of 25 years and covers the development of 170 bcm gas fields offshore (Structures A and E in Contractual Area D/Block NC41, i.e. north of Zuwarah - Tripoli) at a maximum production of 22 mcm/d. Production at the new fields is scheduled to start in 2026 and is expected to supply Libya as well as exports to Italy.
In addition, the agreement also includes cooperation in solar energy and the construction of a Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS; to reduce CO2 emissions) facility in Mellitah.
Eni has a 80% share of Libyan gas production. Mellitah Oil & Gas BV is a joint venture between Eni (50%) and NOC (50%).
Minister of Oil Mohamed Aoun has rejected any NOC oil/gas deal with Italy, as such deals should be signed by him as the responsible minister.
NOC Chair Bin Ghdarah, on the other hand, asserted that the agreement was completely legal and in line with Libyan oil laws. He said it was negotiated in a fair way between the two parties and provides for investments in the oil/gas sector that have not been seen at this level for more than 25 years.
A demonstration against the agreement was held at the Mellitah Oil & Gas Complex.
GNS PM Fathi Bashagha condemned the planned visit of Italian PM Giorgia Meloni with her MFA and MoI to Tripoli on Saturday. He warned that the Libyan state will not accept any agreement with a dubious purpose. In this case, he said, they will turn to the judiciary.
Assessment:
The visit of the Italian PM and the signing of the 8 bn deal is a major success for PM Dbeibha, who was able to present himself as the legitimate PM of Libya and as a successful economist.
On the other side, the visit underlines the significance of Libya for Italy. The gas deal will be a major contribution to Italian energy security, although it is doubtful that Italy will have a demand for a huge amount of gas from Libya until 2048 (!).
General
Italian PM Giorgia Meloni's visited Tripoli together with MFA Antonio Tajani and MoI Matteo Piantedosi on Saturday, January 28. Meloni underlined that Italy wants to raise its profile in North Africa. However, she said, it does not want to be a "predator", but to help African nations grow and prosper. Regarding Libya, the Italian PM hoped the GNU remains committed to holding presidential and parliamentary elections soon.
A major theme of her conversation with PM Abdul Hamid Dbeibha was curbing illegal migration. Other topics included the repair of Tripoli International Airport (TIP) and the construction of the coastal highway financed by Italy.
PM Dbeibha, who was delighted about the visit, said he trusts Italy's ability to work for Libya's stability. Stability in the country will also enable the holding of elections, he added.
Italian MFA Antonio Tajani has stressed that stabilizing Libya through a consensual electoral process is of "crucial importance" to Italy. Achieving stability in Libya, he said, is at the heart of Italy's discussions with all international actors that have influence over Libya.
Only five of the 22 Arab League foreign ministers attended the informal Arab League summit in Tripoli in addition to Libya (Algeria, Comoros, Palestine, Sudan, and Tunisia) on Sunday, January 22. Four other countries (including Oman) were represented at the ambassadorial level. Arab League SecGen Ahmed Aboul Gheit did not attend the meeting.
There were no significant results.
Mangoush said after the conference ended, it had been successful despite the difficult circumstances. She regretted that some countries have "no interest" in Libya's stability.
The Arab League General Secretariat contacted the GNU MFA, pointing out that the meeting in Tripoli did not reach the quorum of 14 members according to the Arab League's internal rules.
GNS PM Fathi Bashagha described the meeting as a "farce" organized by Dbeibha with the purpose of demonstrating the international recognition of the GNU. However, the attempt failed, he said. He thanked Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE "for not participating in the theater by which the expired government tried to portray itself as internationally recognized."
Bashagha called on the governments of Tunisia and Algeria to reconsider their position toward the GNU.
Assessment:
The small number of participants actually represents an embarrassment for Al Mangoush and Dbeibha.
PC Chair Mohamed Al Menfi has told the Arab League, referring to the recent "summit," that Libya insists on his "full rights" within this organization.
Assessment:
While it is correct that Libya currently chairs the 158th Session of the Arab League foreign ministers, it is not customary for session chairs to invite informal meetings to their own countries. This is reserved for summits of heads of state at the invitation of the SecGen.
HoR Chair Agheela Saleh has said he is opposed to a government based in Tripoli because that city is controlled by the militias. He proposed the formation of a caretaker government that would have no more than 18 ministers.
HCS Chair Khaled Al Mishri has stated there is no solid basis for consensus with the HoR on the constitutional issue. The outstanding issues remain the candidacy of dual nationals and military officers for presidency.
Egyptian President Abdelfattah Al Sisi received CIA Director William Burns. Libya was only a side issue during the talks.
Reportedly, the Russian Embassy in Tripoli is to temporarily reside at the Radisson Blu Al Mahary Hotel.
HoR Chair Agheela Saleh has complained that the HCS is not abiding by the Bouznika agreement on appointing the Sovereign Positions and uniting the executive authorities. He said that the HoR had already sent proposals for the open Sovereign Positions to the HCS several months ago, as stipulated in Bouznika, but had not received any response.
The HCS has completed the screening of names for the candidates for Sovereign Positions. These are the Deputy Governor of the CBL, the Director of the Audit Bureau, two Deputy Heads of the Administrative Control Authority (ACA), the Head of the Anti-corruption Authority and the Head of the HNEC.
The HCS will select seven candidates for each of the five sovereign positions. The HoR is to reduce the lists to three candidates each. The HCS will then select the future incumbents from these names.
Assessment:
This selection process is not in line with the Bouznika agreement.
It is noteworthy that the CBL Governor and the ACA Head were not dealt with.
Several hospitals in Tunis are refusing to treat Libyan patients due to high outstanding bills.
Security, Crime & Corruption
The Chadian Union of Forces for Democracy and Development (UFDD) has started to withdraw its forces from Libya in accordance with the Doha Peace Agreement. The Doha Peace Agreement was signed in August 2022 between the government of Chad and various rebel groups. The UFDD rebels are mostly present in the greater Sebha area.
Assessment:
Any withdrawal of rebel groups or mercenaries from southern Libya into their home countries must take place in close coordination with these countries in order to prevent a (renewed) export of instability.
The Municipality of Tobruk has begun an indefinite strike over several attacks by rioters on city facilities in recent days. In the background of the incidents are disputed property rights. The Municipality insists that the police and army enforce the city's decisions.
In Zawiya, one man, a member of the Awlad al Saqr tribe, was seriously wounded in an assassination attempt. The situation in the city remains tense.
Economy
Libya can only meet 20-25% of its own refining needs, according to Minister of Oil Mohamed Aoun.
Aoun has said that Libya cannot export much additional gas at present because of a very high domestic demand for its power plants. Currently, 8.5 mcm/d is supplied to Italy through the Greenstream pipeline. However, he said, some Russian companies were invited to return to Libya to advance the (onshore) exploration for natural gas. It will take three to five years to substantially expand production.
Assessment:
There are no significant “quick wins” in Libya for western Europe to decrease its dependence from Russian oil and gas.
The Minister of Oil has underlined that the oil/gas MoU with Turkey is legally valid and will be implemented. He also said he is ready to discuss outstanding issues with the government in Athens.
The Libyan-Turkish oil/gas MoU is in the Turkish parliament for ratification.
NOC Chair Farhat Omar Bin Ghdarah has opined that if everyone does not feel they are benefiting from oil revenues, blockades will occur again, as has been the case in the past. Therefore, he said, the NOC is trying to hire personnel in proportion to the local population.
The head of the Executive Council of Ghat complained that Ghat and other southern cities are affected by a renewed fuel crisis. Protests by the population are increasing because of the fuel shortage, which cannot be justified by anything, is no longer tolerable.
In Ghat, the price of a liter of gasoline has reached six dinars. There is considerable resentment among the population.
The Libyan Ground Services Company has threatened an indefinite strike at Benghazi-Benina Airport if financial demands are not met. They said that the available funds cannot ensure the operation of the airport and the payment of its staff.
GNS PM Fathi Bashagha and his Minister of Electricity and Renewable Energy are in talks with Egypt on increased energy cooperation. This should include expanding electricity supplies from Egypt to Libya.
The western leg of the Man-made River (Ghadames - Zuwarah - Zawiya), which began partial operation in 2009 but has been idle since 2011, is now to be repaired with the help of a Norwegian company.
Disclaimer:
The statements of Wolfgang Pusztai are his own and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the NCUSLR.
