Weekly Update 29Jan - 4Feb 23
Overview & General Assessment
Currently the situation in Libya is superficially widely calm, but not stable.
An agreement between HoR and HCS about the constitutional foundation for elections remains unlikely in the near future. The rift between Tripolitania and the other two - neglected - regions is increasingly deepening. The population in the south is more and more frustrated about fuel shortages in an oil rich area. This could lead - together with other grievances - to renewed oil Blockades, even if oil smuggling by southerners is a cause of the problem.
While PM Dbeibha is currently firmly in power, the security situation in the greater Tripoli area remains unstable. The position of Minister of Oil Mohamed Aoun is increasingly weakened.
[Note: The abbreviations used as well as brief characteristics of the key players and institutions can be found in the "Libya Conflict Overview".]
How efficient is UNSR Abdoulaye Bathily?
UNSR Abdoulaye Bathily held talks in Morocco with MFA Nasser Bourita on the situation in Libya. Bourita continued to offer Morocco as a neutral negotiating venue.
On a visit to the Republic of Congo, Bathily discussed the situation in Libya and a possible enhanced role for the AU with President Denis Sassou Nguesso, Chair of the African Union High Level Panel on Libya. It was agreed that an AU Reconciliation Team should be deployed on the ground in Libya and include experts from African countries with experience in reconciliation.
Assessment:
This is a good approach in itself. However, it is questionable whether the AU team will have broad acceptance among Libyans.
After returning to Libya, UNSR Bathily briefed PC Chair Mohamed Al Menfi on his recent talks in Algeria, Morocco and the Republic of Congo.
Furthermore, Bathily briefed the African members of the UNSC (Gabon, Ghana and Mozambique) on the situation in Libya.
In Tripoli the UNSR discussed at UNSMIL HQ with the ambassadors of Niger, Chad and Sudan about the withdrawal from Libya of mercenaries and rebel groups from these countries.
Assessment:
The UNSR tries to get the African Union and Libya's southern neighbors more involved into the stabilization process, focusing on reconciliation and the withdrawal of African armed groups from Libya without exporting chaos. All this certainly makes a lot of sense.
UNSR Bathily did not - yet(?) - come forward with a major initiative on its own. He prefers to mediate between the various factions in the background, trying to listen to everyone. While this approach is criticized by some, it certainly meets the desires of most Libyans who do not want to have another international plan imposed on them. The next months will show if Bathily’s approach will be successful.
General
At a meeting in Ndjamena between the heads of state of Sudan Abdel Fattah Al Burhan and Chad Mohamed Deby, both expressed concern about the destabilizing effects of the situation in Libya on their countries. The meeting also discussed the issue of the return of rebel and mercenary forces from Libya to their home countries.
The head of the UN Independent fact-finding Mission on Libya complained that the Libyan government is not cooperating sufficiently with the mission. Victims' families have been waiting too long for justice.
U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, in the course of his trip to Egypt, said that the U.S. supports a path toward elections so that Libya gets a legitimate government that reflects the aspirations of the Libyan people. This, he said, would also preserve the country's unity. Blinken once again underscored U.S. support for UNSR Abdoulaye Bathily.
U.S. Special Envoy Richard Norland, in the course of a meeting with the American-Libyan Business Association in Tunis, said a clear roadmap toward fair and inclusive elections is the best way to stabilize Libya. Lasting peace and stability, he said, is the key to economic prosperity for all Libyans.
PM Abdul Hamid Dbeibha has announced the start of the implementation of the first phase of the Youth Housing Initiative. In the process, 25,000 people are expected to receive land plots and housing loans. The initiative was launched by Dbeibha in May last year.
The mayors of Al Bayda, Suluq, Surman, and Mizdah requested the removal of names on the GNU list of Youth Housing Initiative eligibles as they do not meet the requirements. All of them added that the list as a whole needs to be reviewed.
The Director of Security of Al Bayda announced that they would arrest the members of the Municipal Council who added the names of ineligible people to the list.
New Libyan Ambassador to the EU Jalal Al Ashi talked in Brussels with DG MOVE about ending the EU ban on Libyan airlines. Al Ashi says Libyan airlines now meet European standards.
Assessment:
The ban is not expected to be lifted anytime soon.
MedSky operated the first (charter) flight between Mitiga and Malta/La Valletta. MedSky is owned by businessman Muhammad Al Taher Issa, who has a close relationship with PM Abdul Hamid Dbeibha.
Greek (charter) Marathon Airlines plans to operate the Athens-Benghazi route twice a week starting 2Mar23.
The Greek Consulate in Benghazi plans to start issuing Schengen visas from June.
Security, Crime & Corruption
PM Abdul Hamid Dbeibha together with CBL Governor Al Sadiq Al Kabir (!) visited the 162nd Brigade of the Western Coast Military Region based in Al'Assah on the Tunisian border. The commander of this region, ex-MoD MajGen Salah Al Din Al Namroush, was also present during the visit. Dbeibha discussed with the officers the situation on the border and the problem of smuggling.
During the first half of the week there were several skirmishes between various rival militias in the greater Tripoli area, including near Tripoli International Airport, Al Kremiya, Al Serraj and Zawiya. The coastal road in Zawiya was temporarily blocked.
Southwest of Tripoli there was a fight between fuel smuggling gangs from Zawiya and Zintan.
Assessment:
All the militias involved are to be considered “pro-Dbeibha”. A lasting improvement of the security situation cannot be expected anytime soon.
Economy
Minister of Oil Mohamed Aoun has again questioned the legality of the Eni-NOC gas contract, which includes an increase in Italy's share of the gas produced from 30% to 37%. According to Aoun, this should have been approved in advance by the Ministry of Oil and then by the Council of Ministers.
PM Abdul Hamid Dbeibha, in a response to ongoing criticism of the Eni-NOC gas contract, stressed that it came about after long, thorough negotiations and serves Libya's interests first. Without this contract, Libya would have needed to import gas from 2027.
Minister of Finance Khaled Al-Mabrouk, CBL Governor Al Sadiq Al Kabir, NOC Chair Farhat Bin Ghadara and LIA Chair Ali Mahmoud Hassan are at the Oil & Gas Sector Support Forum in Istanbul along with several other ministers. Minister of Oil Mohamed Aoun is not part of the delegation. The forum, which is also attended by a number of Western companies, is organized by the NOC.
Bin Ghadara stressed that the situation around oil fields, pipelines and terminals is stable and invited the foreign companies to return to Libya. In doing so, he also praised the role of the LNA and the Petroleum Facility Guard in maintaining security around these facilities.
Assessment:
Keeping the overall situation in Libya, including the still tense situation in the Sirte basin (without any kind of international supervision of the ceasefire), the presence of terrorist organizations like AQIM and ISIS in the south as well as the activities of numerous militias and criminal gangs in mind, this statement of Bin Ghadara seems to be overly optimistic.
Malta has granted a company a license to drill exploration wells in a maritime area also claimed by Libya.
Chairman of the Turkish-Libyan Business Council Morteza Karanfil said Turkish exports to Libya totaled $2.4 billion in 2022, up more than 20% from 2021. Libyan debts to Turkish companies amount to more than $4 billion. Although there has been an agreement with Libya for three years to pay them, this has not happened so far.
The Supreme Court has rejected the appeal of current Libyan Investment Authority (LIA) Chair Ali Mahmoud Hassan against the reinstatement of his predecessor Mohsen Derregia as chair of the LIA by the Administrative Court of Appeal and determined that there is no longer any possibility of appeal against this ruling. It was ruled that Hassan must hand over his office to Derregia within 10 days.
Mohsen Derregia was appointed LIA chair in April 2012 for a three-year term, but was removed by PM Ali Zeidan after nine months without giving a reason. Derregia, who was Professor of Accounting & Finance at the University of Nottingham, had been trying to redress mismanagement and wrongdoings within the LIA.
The media spokesman of the LIA has stated that the Supreme Court's ruling in favor of Mohsen Derregia regarding the Chair of the LIA is meaningless today. This only invalidated the appointment of Ali Al Hibri in 2013.
Assessment:
The implementation or non-implementation of the ruling of the Supreme Court will show if Libya is a state under the rule of law or not. This might have some impact on the trust of potential investors in Libya’s legal system.
The head of the Executive Council of Ghat Ibrahim Khalil has lamented that Ghat and other southern cities have been hit by a renewed fuel crisis. Protests by the population are increasing because of the fuel shortage, which cannot be justified by anything. This is no longer tolerable.
Brega Petroleum Marketing Company (BPMC) attributes the lack of fuel and cooking gas availability in the south not to a lack of supply from BPMC, but to smuggling of fuel and cooking gas that is completely out of control, often by gangs from Fezzan.
Disclaimer:
The statements of Wolfgang Pusztai are his own and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the NCUSLR.
