Weekly Update 5Feb - 11Feb 23
Overview & General Assessment
Currently the situation in Libya is superficially widely calm, but not stable.
An agreement between HoR and HCS about the constitutional foundation for elections remains unlikely in the near future, although it is increasingly realized that the key players in this are PM Dbeibha and LNA Commander Haftar.
The rift between Tripolitania and the other two - neglected - regions is increasingly deepening. The population in the south is more and more frustrated about fuel shortages in an oil rich area. This could lead - together with other grievances - to renewed oil Blockades, even if oil smuggling by southerners is a cause of the problem. For now, the oil production ist stable at 1.2 M bpd
While PM Dbeibha is currently firmly in power, the security situation in the greater Tripoli area deteriorates slowly.
[Note: The abbreviations used as well as brief characteristics of the key players and institutions can be found in the "Libya Conflict Overview".]
The beginning of the withdrawal of African Mercenaries?
In Cairo, a meeting of the 5+5 JMC on the withdrawal of African mercenaries took place. It was chaired by UNSR Abdoulaya Bathily and attended also by representatives of Niger, Chad and Sudan.
They agreed on a mechanism to collect and share data on African mercenaries in Libya. This is intended to prepare for their withdrawal. The delegations of Niger, Sudan and Chad will also be involved in the information exchange.
LTG Imrajaa Al Amami, the head of the LNA delegation to the 5+5 JMC, said that it was decided in the JMC to pursue the easiest step for now, the withdrawal of African mercenaries from Libya. For a withdrawal of all other foreign troops and mercenaries, including the Russians, Syrians, and Turks, a new, joint government would be needed.
The U.S. Embassy welcomed the results of the 5+5 JMC. It said the presence of foreign troops and mercenaries destabilizes the country. Therefore, they must be withdrawn as soon as possible.
Assessment:
Bathily's approach of dealing with the withdrawal of foreign troops and mercenaries in separate packages yields initial success. If the mechanism is indeed implemented, it could be a step toward the coordinated withdrawal of African mercenaries and rebel groups from Libya.
13th Amendment to the Constitutional Declaration 2011
The HoR unanimously approved the 13th Amendment to the Constitutional Declaration 2011.
The Amendment has 34 (!) articles. Article 1 establishes the system of government. The legislature ("National Assembly") consists of two chambers ("House of Representatives" (Benghazi) and "Senate" (Tripoli)). The Senate has 60 members, 20 from each of the three regions. The executive branch is headed by a directly elected president, who also appoints the PM. The president is also the Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces. The PM must have a university degree and cannot be a dual citizen.
The text does not contain a provision on who may run for president.
HoR Chair Agheela Saleh stated that the amended Constitutional Declaration (2011) should form the basis for the elections. The text was sent to HCS to seek its approval.
At the HCS, the reception of the 13th Amendment has been mixed. While some see it as a step toward revitalizing the political process, others oppose in principle a renewed amendment of the Constitutional Declaration.
HoR MP Al Al Takbali, has stated that outsourcing the controversial issues from the Constitution to the electoral laws is not a solution.
Several members of the Constitution Drafting Assembly immediately called Saleh's proposal "scandalous." It would result in a complete mess.
Assessment:
While this approach is by far more realistic than the one via the controversial Draft Constitution (2017), it is unlikely to meet with HCS approval. The key question of who is eligible to run for election remains open.
General
UNSR Abdoulaye Bathily met in Rome with Italian MFA Antonio Tajani for talks on the situation in Libya. Tajani assured the UNSR of Italy's full support. Libya, he said, is one of the priorities of Italian foreign policy.
UNSR Bathily has briefed GNU PM Abdul Hamid Dbeibha on the results of his recent consultations with Libyan and international interlocutors. In the course of his conversation, Bathily called for a fair distribution of oil revenues. This must meet the standards of transparency and good governance so that all Libyans can benefit from the funds accordingly. Another topic was the role of the GNU in ensuring elections.
U.S. DoS spokesman Samuel Warburg has stressed that transparent management of oil revenues is currently the U.S. priority in Libya. He said this must include a mechanism for determining expenditures and steps to monitor them, as well as accountability.
Oliver Varhelyi, EU Commissioner for Neighborhood and Enlargement, handed over five EU-funded patrol boats to MFA Najla Al Mangoush in Rovigo, Italy in the presence of Italian MFA Antonio Tajani.
The German Foreign Office is working on plans for another Berlin conference on Libya. A roadmap on elections is to be adopted.
UNSR Bathily met with LNA Commander Khalifa Haftar in Al Rajma. Main topics discussed were the security situation, especially the monitoring of the ceasefire and the withdrawal of African mercenaries, and the constitutional basis for elections.
After meeting PM Dbeibha, British Ambassador Caroline Hurndall and MajGen Jim Morris, Commanding Officer of the UK Joint Expeditionary Force, visited LNA Commander Khalifa Haftar in Al Rajma.
Spanish Ambassador Javier Larache also visited the LNA Commander in Al Rajma.
PC Chair Mohamed Al Menfi met with LNA Commander Khalifa Haftar in Benghazi to discuss the election process.
Assessment:
Diplomatic visits, which are now more frequent, and the visit of Al Menfi show Haftar's renewed importance, reflecting the fact that he has a key role in any compromise about the constitutional foundation for elections.
LNA Commander Haftar received GNS PM Fathi Bashagha and GNS MFA Abul Hafez Gaddur for a discussion on the GNS situation and the general political situation. This is the first meeting between the two since Bashagha's appointment on 10Feb22.
65 HoR MPs have demanded a hearing from Bashagha on his failure to take office in Tripoli.
Assessment:
With Bashagha's support now waning in the HoR and his increasing international isolation, he is trying to secure Haftar's backing.
GNS PM Fathi Bashagha has criticized UNSR Bathily's cooperation with the GNU. The influence of the latter does not go beyond the city limits of Tripoli, he said.
The GNS held its second ministerial council this year in Benghazi. There were no significant decisions.
At the local elections in Gharyan, 68.5% of registered voters (6,090 people) cast ballots. There were no incidents. The list with the most votes received 1,029 votes.
The Central Committee for Municipal Council Elections (CCMCE) has praised the "high" turnout in Gharyan.
Assessment:
A turnout of just over 6,000 people (86% men, 14% women) in a major city like Gharyan is a disaster, even if the media emphasize that more than 68% of registered voters cast their ballots.
The HCS has selected seven persons for each of the sovereign positions currently under discussion. The HoR is to reduce the number of candidates to three each. From these, the HCS then wants to select the future incumbent.
Meanwhile, nine cities have requested a review of the Youth Housing Initiative's eligibility lists, he said.
PM Dbeibha noted the objections of several cities to names on the Youth Housing Initiative eligibility list and tasked the Higher Committee for Youth Housing and Needy Families with revising the list. No grievances will be tolerated, he said.
The HNEC is currently about 4,000 election observers short of the 6,000 needed for a nationwide election. Therefore, the proper conduct of a nationwide election would not even be possible at this time.
The director of the National Center for Disease Control Haider Al Sayeh fears the introduction of Ebola into Libya. Appropriate precautions must be taken to prevent this, he said.
Security, Crime & Corruption
MoI Emad Trabelsi has announced the second phase of his security plan that will include some cities around Tripoli.
He briefed Attorney General Al Sadiq Al Sour on his security plan for Greater Tripoli.
At the beginning of the week, fierce fighting took place between rival militias in Zawiya in the city center (Al Hilal - Al Shurafa). It was triggered by the killing of two young men.
At least two other people were killed in the course of the fighting. Numerous others were wounded, some seriously.
The Libyan Army Western Military Region's 103rd Infantry Battalion was deployed to Zawiya to separate the warring factions after a settlement was achieved by the city's elders.
An employee of the Zawiya Prosecutor's Office survived wounded an assassinaton attempt.
Assessment
The situation in Zawiya remains very tense.
A skirmish took place between militias from Zawiya and Zuwarah near the Mellitah Oil and Gas Complex. Allegedly, the reason for the fighting was the fact that a plane coming from Istanbul with the Islamist Abu Obeida Al Zawi, who is from Zawiya, on board was denied landing in Zuwarah. Militias from Zawiya had earlier attempted to force their way into the airport. Al Zawi, who has been in Turkey for a long time, is the commander of the AQ-affiliated Al Farouk Brigade.
In Tajoura, a fierce battle with heavy infantry weapons took place near the National Heart Center between Bashir Al Bugra's Rahbat Al Daraa Brigade and the Martyr Sabria Brigade. Earlier, a vehicle belonging to the Martyr Sabria Brigade was fired upon by Al Bugra's militiamen. The fighting overnight left at least three dead. As a result of the fighting, air traffic in Mitiga was temporarily suspended. Several flights were diverted to Misrata.
Two members of the MoI Law Enforcement Department were attacked and seriously injured by unknown persons near the National Heart Center in Tajoura.
Iraqi actress and influencer Dalya Farhoud, residing in Tripoli, was arrested by the Rada Force at her home in Janzour. The Rada Force spokesperson has stated that she had been detained for "violating privacy" and for "publishing content that does not fit into Libyan society."
The Chairman and some members of the Board of Directors of Waha Bank were arrested for fraud on behalf of the Attorney General. The former director of the bank was also arrested.
An employee of the Ministry of Health was kidnapped in Tripoli immediately after leaving the ministry.
In Tarhouna, a man was arrested for severely beating a traffic policeman for a trivial reason.
Militias from Misrata, fighters from Operation Al Bunyan Al Marsoos, have blockaded Al Dafiniyah Gate in Misrata and demanded the GNU pay outstanding salaries.
In Tobruk, two university faculties were closed due to a shooting in the building. Three students were wounded.
The Benghazi Security Directorate conducted a major raid against alcohol and drug traffickers with support of the LNA in the Bouhmida and Al Wahishi area. Several people were arrested. Allegedly, five people were killed.
In Sebha, some administrative buildings occupied by protesters in a dispute over property rights were forcibly evacuated by police.
The Sebha General Directorate for Security Operations closed several illegal gas stations in Sebha and confiscated the stored fuel.
Economy
Oil revenues peaked in January at LYD 4.7 billion. Production has been stable at around 1.2 million bpd in recent months.
According to the head of the Italian consortium for the reconstruction of Tripoli International Airport, the airport should be reopened within 15-18 months if the security situation allows continuous work.
The LNA Commander of the Southern Operations Force Major General Al-Mabrouk Sahban has established a committee to analyze and solve the fuel crisis in the south. The committee includes the head of the Fezzan Supreme Council Ahmed Muhammad and the director of the Sebha Oil Depot.
Disclaimer:
The statements of Wolfgang Pusztai are his own and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the NCUSLR.
